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Journal of Research in Health Sciences، جلد ۲۱، شماره ۲، صفحات ۰-۰
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عنوان انگلیسی Nine-month Trend of Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers of COVID-19 in West of Iran
چکیده انگلیسی مقاله Background: The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) is an important concept in infectious disease epidemiology and the most important parameter to determine the transmissibility of a pathogen. This study aimed to estimate the nine-month trend of time-varying R of COVID-19 epidemic using the serial interval (SI) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Lorestan, west of Iran. Study design: Descriptive study. Methods: This study was conducted based on a cross-sectional method. The SI distribution was extracted from data and log-normal, Weibull, and Gamma models were fitted. The estimation of time-varying R 0 , a likelihood-based model was applied, which uses pairs of cases to estimate relative likelihood. Results: In this study, R t was estimated for SI 7-day and 14-day time-lapses from 27 February-14 November 2020. To check the robustness of the R 0 estimations, sensitivity analysis was performed using different SI distributions to estimate the reproduction number in 7-day and 14-day time-lapses. The R 0 ranged from 0.56 to 4.97 and 0.76 to 2.47 for 7-day and 14-day time-lapses. The doubling time was estimated to be 75.51 days (95% CI: 70.41, 81.41). Conclusions: Low R 0 of COVID-19 in some periods in Lorestan, west of Iran, could be an indication of preventive interventions, namely quarantine and isolation. To control the spread of the disease, the reproduction number should be reduced by decreasing the transmission and contact rates and shortening the infectious period.
کلیدواژه‌های انگلیسی مقاله Basic reproduction number,COVID-19,Transmissibility Measures,Disease Transmission,Infectious,Iran
نویسندگان مقاله | Ebrahim Rahimi


| Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari


| Yaser Mokhayeri


| Asaad Sharhani


| Rasool Mohammadi


نشانی اینترنتی http://jrhs.umsha.ac.ir/index.php/JRHS/article/view/6534
فایل مقاله فایلی برای مقاله ذخیره نشده است
کد مقاله (doi) 10.34172/jrhs.v0i0.6534
زبان مقاله منتشر شده en
موضوعات مقاله منتشر شده
نوع مقاله منتشر شده Original Articles
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